JIMMY THE GEEK/Special to Bullet News
In my Week 12 picks, against the spread, I picked 11 games right, 4 wrong and one push (-3 Houston beat Detroit by 3). Overall I am 25-16 with three pushes since week 10.
Week 13
Huge week in Fantasy Football because, for most leagues, it’s the final week of the regular season and to many it’s do or die. Big production from Big players this week.
(-3.5) Atlanta Falcons v. New Orleans Saints
The first match between these two big-play teams, three weeks ago in week 10, seen the then undefeated Atlanta Falcons lose to a New Orleans Saints (31-27) team that could only muster 2 wins throughout the first 8 games. In the two games that have followed, the Saints have beaten the Oakland Raiders, and lost to the San Francisco 49ers. Atlanta has begun another win streak with wins over the Arizona Cardinals and division rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This game is going to be a shoot-out on Thursday night! Both teams have prolific passing offences that can put up touchdowns at will through the air, and rushing offences that really haven’t been anything special through the first 11 games. Falcons RB Michael Turner has been relatively quite this season leaving many to say he’s old and can’t keep up his previous years production, and while it’s true he’s old in RB years (30) I think he’s been used sparingly so that he’s healthy & fresh for the last half of the season and playoffs. Watch for him to have a big game this Thursday night, which will open up the Saints secondary so Falcons QB Matt Ryan can have his way through the air. I see the (10-1) Atlanta Falcons getting revenge on the division rival (5-6) New Orleans Saints, and covering the spread.
(-4) Chicago Bears v. Seattle Seahawks
I’ve said it a few times before – the (6-5) Seattle Seahawks only win at home. This week they traveling into the windy city to square off against the (8-3) NFC North Division leading Chicago Bears fresh off a division win against the Minnesota Vikings, who lost to the Seahawks IN SEATTLE week 9, 30-20. After suffering a ankle injury at the beginning of the season, Bears RB Matt Forte went down in last weeks victory with another ankle injury, although it’s said to be not as severe and there is a possiblility of him playing on Sunday. While that may actually be the case, don’t expect him to. Smoke & mirrors. Bears back-up RB Michael Bush can fill in quite well for the injured Forte, and with the Bears facing division rivals Minnesota & Green Bay in the following weeks- Expect Forte to be out. Also, Bears WR Devin Hester sustained a concussion last week so I highly doubt he’ll be on the field, and that could be a great thing for Bears fans because he can’t seem to catch the ball this year! The Chicago defence is entering this game banged up also. Last week potential Defensive Player of the Year CB Charles Tillman sustained a bone chip in his foot, however he escaped serious injury and should suit up. The Seahawks should have beaten Miami last week, however they couldn’t finish the job and allowed the Dolphins to score 10 points in the final 5 ½ minutes, capped off with a game winning 43-yard field goal by Dolphins kicker Dan Carpenter. I’m picking Da Bears to win this game, but I don’t think they will cover the spread.
Minnesota Vikings @ (-9) Green Bay Packers
Both NFC North Division rivals are entering this game on the heels of defeat. Last week the (7-4) Green Bay Packers lost to the New York Giants 38-10 in New York. The (6-5) Minnesota Vikings lost to division rivals the Chicago Bears. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think the Vikings are going to beat the Packers, I just think that the Packers are dealing with too many injuries to cover the (-9) spread. I can’t imagine the Packers to lose two consecutive weeks, especially when that second opponent is a important division game in a season where it will be so close at the end that these games might determine the tiebreakers. Even though he wasn’t able to hit pay dirt last week, Vikings RB Adrian Peterson was able to gain over 100 yards against a stingy Bears defence. If Packers defensive monster Clay Mathews is out again, I think Peterson will have his way that day. I give the entire Packers organization a lot of credit so I am picking them to win, but not by 9. Pick the Vikings against the spread in this one.
(-5.5) Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
The (10-1) Houston Texans were able to slip past Detroit last week just barely, albeit with a blown call on a touchdown that most definitely should have been called off. This week they continue their march to the Super Bowl with a divisional game against the (4-7) Tennessee Titans. Last week the Tennessee Titans lost a hard fought game to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who almost upset the Houston Texans the previous week, however lost in overtime. The first time these two rivals squared off, this season, was in week 4. The Houston Texans won that matchup 38-14. The last time one of these teams swept the season series was back in 2007 when the Titans won both matches. This year the Houston Texans are arguably the best team in the league, sporting only one loss which came against the Green Bay Packers, 42-24 in week 6. The only way I see Houston losing this game is if Titans RB Chris Johnson can produce on the ground. The Texans are allowing on average 87.5 yards per game, however when he faced the stingy Bears defence in week 9 he was able to gain141 yards so it can happen. I’m going to pick Houston to win this game and cover the spread.
Miami Dolphins v. (-7.5) New England Patriots
This is my pick of the week. In the first match-up between these two AFC East division rivals we see the division leading (8-3) New England Patriots venture down to South Beach to take on the (5-6) Miami dolphins in a game where the Patriots can lock up the division, earning a playoff berth. Last week the Dolphins beat the visiting Seattle Seahawks to the score of 24-21, winning on a 43-yard field goal on the last play of the game & the New England Patriots embarrassed the division rival New York Jets, 49-19 in New York. The last time the Dolphins beat the Patriots was week 13 back in 2009, 22-21. I like picking underdogs, and give credit to a team that has nothing to win other than pride. I’m sure the Dolphins players would love to come out with a big win on Sunday, as I’d imagine they have no interest seeing a division title being won on their turf, in week 13, to any team other than themselves. Maybe I’m all alone on this, but I’m going to pick the Dolphins to win. I think they will show up instead of rolling over, and they will cover the spread.
(-4.5) Detroit Lions v. Indianapolis Colts
Defensive monster Ndamukong Suh has escaped a suspension for another dirty move in the primetime spotlights of the Lions annual Thanksgiving Day loss and should come out of Sundays tilt with a big game. The (4-7) Detroit Lions are much better than what their record says. Last week they almost handed the (10-1) Houston Texans their second loss of the season, but were on the end of a brutal blown call when the Justin Forsett rushing touchdown was upheld, when he clearly was down. The (7-4) Indianapolis Colts are coming into this game after beating the Buffalo Bills in Indianapolis last week. I can’t see the Detroit Lions losing 4 games in a row, especially to a rookie QB, even though that rookie QB is the heir to Peyton Manning. I’m picking the Lions to win this game by a lot more then (-4.5).
Jacksonville Jaguars v (-6) Buffalo Bills
(4-7) Buffalo Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been quite efficient in the last 7 games, only throwing 4 interceptions total, starting in week 5 at San Francisco. (2-9) Jacksonville Jaguars back-up QB, Chad Henne, formerly of the Miami Dolphins and filling in for injured 2nd year starter, Blaine Gabbert, has done a great job the past two games in relief. Two weeks ago, in a week 11 match-up against the AFC leading Houston Texans, Henne tallied 354 yards through the air, which is the most that the Jags have put up all season. In last week’s tilt Henne lead his team to their second victory of the season, throwing for 261 yards against the Tennessee Titans. In recent weeks Jags WR’s have been awesome. Look for 2nd year WR Cecil Shorts, and rookie WR Justin Blackmon to try for some big plays this Sunday against the Bills secondary. I think that the Bills defence will force the Jaguars to throw the ball on Sunday because Jags RB Maurice Jones-Drew is still unable to suit up and take the field. I don’t like the (+6) for the Jaguars. I think that the Buffalo Bills will squeak out a close victory. Take Jacksonville against the spread.
(-3) Carolina Panthers v. Kansas City Chiefs
When I had seen that the (3-8) Carolina Panthers were playing the (1-10) Kansas City Chiefs this week, I jumped for joy. I noticed that during a fantasy football draft back in August, and then decided that Panthers Heisman winning QB, Cam Newton was going to be my guy this year. The Chiefs have a whole bunch of issues, apparently, and even though the Panthers aren’t good examples themselves, I think Carolina is a much better all around team. The only positive thing going for the Chiefs this season is their rushing attack which averages 145.6 yds/gm. RB Jamal Charles is a monster when he can get free and not fumbling the ball. The Chiefs have the second most amount of fumbles so far this season with 10. The Panthers have only been able to hammer out 3 wins this season, but in every game they have been close. The only game they weren’t even close to winning was back in week 3 against the New York Giants. I’m picking the Carolina Panthers to win and cover the spread.
(-7) San Francisco 49ers v. St. Louis Rams
I’m going to copy & paste the same thing I wrote almost 3 weeks ago when these two division rivals squared off in week 10, at San Francisco: “I don’t think much time needs to be spent explaining why I believe the 6-2 San Francisco 49ers are going to hand the 3-5 St. Louis Rams their sixth loss. Even though they play twice a season, the St. Louis Rams have only beaten the San Francisco 49ers a whopping three times since the beginning of the 2005 season. I am a big Jeff Fisher fan, and truly believe that in the years to come that the St. Louis Rams are going to be a competitive team, however I don’t think they stand a chance to beat the 6-2 49ers. I don’t like the spread though. I have too much respect for Jeff Fisher, and that 49ers loss to Minnesota earlier in the season scares me about this team. San Francisco for the win, but I think it’s within 11.5.” They tied that game 24-24! The San Francisco 49ers are now (8-2-1) and the St. Louis Rams are (4-6-1). I still think very much the same as what I wrote when I scribed that, however now I think the 49ers are going to cover the (-7) spread. I like what I have seen from 49ers back-up QB, Colin Kaepernick, and I think he is the QB of the future for them. Pick the 49ers to win & cover the spread.
Arizona Cardinals v. (-4.5) New York Jets
I think that the (4-7) Arizona Cardinals defence is going to have a field day against QB Mark Sanchez and the (4-7) New York Jets. The Cardinals haven’t been able to win a game since week 4 against the Miami Dolphins, but they still have a defence that is allowing only 327.9 yds/gm through 11 games so far this season. Cardinals CB Patrick Peterson has 4 interceptions so far this season and must be looking forward to the opportunity to pick off Jets QB Mark Sanchez and possibly force Jets Head Coach, Rex Ryan to replace him with back-up QB Timothy Tebow. After spanking the St. Louis Rams on the road in week 11, the Jets were hoping to take some of that momentum back home last week against the division rival New England Patriots, but they ended up being embarrassed. I am going to pick the Arizona Cardinals to get win #5 this week and to beat the spread, but watch out for Jets RB Shonn Greene because I think he’s due for a big game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. (-7) Denver Broncos
I know that the (8-3) Denver Broncos have been playing some great football this season with future Hall of Fame QB Peyton Manning at the helm, and I know that I haven’t taken the Broncos in one of these blogs, but I blame it on the people who make the schedule: I’m taking the Buccaneers! The (6-5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been playing some great football the past few matches. They almost beat the league leading (10-1) Atlanta Falcons last week, losing by 1 point. The Falcons were able to limit Buccaneers RB Doug Martin to 50 yards on the ground with 2 touchdowns. I think this is going to be a great game on Sunday, and I can’t call who’s going to win it but I do think it will be within a touchdown. Take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat the spread.
Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers
At the time of writing this Las Vegas hasn’t put out a spread for this game as it surely depends on if Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is healthy enough to play. Just a hunch though…. I doubt he is, and the longer there is no definitive answer leads me to think it’s less likely. Imagine a (9-2) Ravens team with 6 days of preparation for Steelers back-up QB, Charlie Batch. They’re doing him a favour right now… It’s a safety issue!! The Ravens have been more of a passing offence this season, and I think that is a strategy to keep Ravens star RB Ray Rice healthy in the second half of the season & playoffs, much like I think the same with Falcons RB Michael Turner. The first match between these two bitter rivals was only two weeks ago in week 11 where Baltimore came out with a 13-10 victory. This is going to be a great defensive tilt and I think the Ravens will beat the Steelers by (+7).
San Diego Chargers v. (-1.5) Cincinnati Bengals
If the Baltimore Ravens beat the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the (6-5) Cincinnati Bengals lose to the (4-7) San Diego Chargers then the Baltimore Ravens will lock up the AFC North Division title, and I see that happening this Sunday. Historically, under Head Coach Norv Turner, the San Diego Chargers have been a second half of the season team. This year will be different because they’ve dug themselves quite the hole and thinking playoffs for the Chargers is quite unrealistic, but they’re still a good team coming together on the offence side of the ball, and a defence that can make big plays. They almost defeated the (9-2) Ravens last week until somehow Ravens RB Ray Rice carried the team on his back on a 4th & 29 yard conversion that summed up the Chargers season & Norv Turner’s time in San Diego- Failure. It might not be the popular pick, but I’m going to take the San Diego Chargers to pull off a win at home this Sunday.
Cleveland Browns v. Oakland Raiders
At the time of writing this Vegas had not given out and spreads for this game, but when they do I think they’re going to favour the (3-8) Cleveland Browns. After almost squeaking out a win down in Dallas two weeks ago, losing in overtime, they were able to beat the division rival Pittsburgh Steelers last week. The Cleveland defence was able to force 8 Steelers turnovers, and only coughed up 1. This week they will face the interception-prone (3-8) Oakland Raiders QB, Carson Palmer. There is the possibility we will see Raiders back-up QB Terrell Pryor on the field this Sunday since Carson Palmers struggling to limit his turnovers. Browns win.
(-10) Dallas Cowboys v. Philadelphia Eagles
Taking the (5-6) Dallas Cowboys to cover a (-10) spread? I must be crazy! Especially since the Cowboys are only averaging 78.7 yds/gm on the ground, good enough to be the worst rushing offence in the league! For all you Dallas Cowboys fans that cry about losing RB DeMarco Murray… The Jacksonville Jaguars have a better rushing attack and they’ve been without STAR RB Maurice Jones-Drew for just as long. The reason I’m picking the Cowboys to beat the (3-8) Philadelphia Eagles is because they are healthy, and they have great WR’s in Dez Bryant & Miles Austin as well as future Hall of Fame TE, Jason Witten. Philadelphia, much like Kansas City, is a team with many apparent issues. Starting QB Michael Vick is out again with a severe concussion, leaving the job up to back-up Eagles QB, Nick Foles. Starting RB, LeSean McCoy is going to be out again with a concussion, however back-up RB Bryce Brown filled in quite well last week on Monday Night Football. I think that the Dallas Cowboys defence will step up to the plate this week. I’m picking Dallas to win by more than 10 points.
Washington Redskins v. (-2.5) New York Giants
What a great Monday Night Football game! The (7-4) New York Football Giants taking on the (5-6) Washington Redskins in a HUGE divisional game! The Giants are enjoying a 2 game lead in the standings right now over the both (5-6) Redskins & Cowboys, but a win this Monday by the Redskins would pull them within 1. The first time these two rivals squared off, back in week 7, seen the New York Giants victorious by the score of 27-23. I think that this game will be another close, hard fought battle in Washington D.C. I’m picking the Washington Redskins to win this game and beat the spread.
